The Kingdom’s days are numbered

The US has not had wholly “friendly” intentions towards the Kingdom for the past 30 years. Any appearance of such is only the visible veneer of real US military policy. Declassified documents reveal that there has been a constant drumbeat to invade Saudi Arabia that has sounded behind the closed doors of our government. The Pentagon, for three decades, has formulated and updated secret plans to seize Saudi oil wells and rid the Kingdom of the ruling House of Saud.

The London Sunday Times revealed information from a leaked and classified US Department of Defense plan. The plan, drawn up by the Pentagon, was code named “Dhahran Option Four” and provided for an invasion of the world’s largest oil reserves, namely Saudi Arabia.

A report entitled, “Oil Fields as Military Objectives: A Feasibility Study”, was produced for the Committee on Foreign Relations. In this report, the CRS stated that potential targets for the US included Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Libya, and Nigeria. “Analysis indicates … [that military forces of OPEC countries were] quantitatively and qualitatively inferior [and] could be swiftly crushed.”

One senior Israeli intelligence officer stated the goal was to make Israel the dominant power in the region and expel the Palestinians.

Before publication of his book “Sleeping With The Devil”, Robert Baer, ex-CIA officer, was ordered by the CIA to remove multiple passages claiming special CIA knowledge of Saudi royals having funneled money to Al Qaeda for terrorist funding, assassination plots, and even Chechen rebels. He asserts that Saudi Arabia is a “powder keg waiting to explode”, “the royal family is “corrupt”, “hanging on by a thread” and “as violent and vengeful as any Mafia family”.

Related: Secret Report Reveals Saudi Incompetence and Widespread Use of U.S. Weapons in Yemen

Since Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS outmaneuvered his rivals to become Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader in 2015, the 33-year-old has received favorable coverage in international media, with a multitude of reports focused on his economic and social reforms in the conservative kingdom.

Salman’s record is very different from the hype, one that includes the imprisonment of critics and human rights activists, thousands of civilian deaths in Yemen and a rapid rise of the number of executions since his ascent to power.

“Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ‘reform campaign’ has been a frenzy of fear for genuine Saudi reformers who dare to advocate publicly for human rights or women’s empowerment,” Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement at the time.

In 2017, Saudi security forces arrested several hundred of the richest people in the country, allegedly in an attempt to combat corruption among the higher echelons of the Saudi bureaucracy.

Related: Saudi Princes’ corruption, drug trafficking, global prostitution and child sex slave trade

Those arrested were locked up for weeks in the luxurious Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, where some were reportedly physically mistreated. 

A report by the New York Times said 17 of the detainees required hospital treatment after physical abuse, including one who later died in custody.

“In the eight months after he was appointed crown prince, 133 people were executed,” Reprieve said in March this year. 

Mohammed bin Salman has overseen the execution of 16 people on average per month, every month, since his appointment.

The Crown Prince’s war on Yemen and the huge amount of money it is draining, in addition to the cold war he launched against Qatar, show clear signs of failure.

Then the attacks began. First taking place shortly after President Donald Trump’s administration ended waivers for countries importing Iranian oil, amplifying the effect of crippling sanctions it’s imposed on Iran since late 2018 after the U.S. withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal. Animosity between Washington and Tehran has skyrocketed since then.

I was an adviser to the Saudi Division during the Persian Gulf War. They were the second worst Army I had ever seen. Second worst only because Iraq lost. It looks like things have not changed with them since the army of a Third World country (Yemen) has captured a lot of them.

Yemen’s Houthi movement has said it carried out an attack near the border with the southwestern Saudi region of Najran and captured “thousands” of enemy troops including several Saudi army officers.

Houthi-run Al Masirah TV quoted the spokesman as saying they captured “thousands” of enemy troops, including many officers and soldiers of the Saudi army, as well as “hundreds of armored vehicles”.

The Houthis, who control the northern part of Yemen, have recently stepped up their drone and missile attacks across the southern border of Saudi Arabia.

The rebels claimed responsibility for a September 14 assault on two facilities run by Saudi’s state oil company, Aramco.

It’s surprising Saudi Arabia maintains its armed forces, and spends more than $100 billion annually (of course to keep its western masters happy in order to protect the autocratic Al Saud clan). But the fact of the matter is – a force of only 1,000 Hezbollah fighters can defeat the Saudi armed forces hands down, and overrun the entire kingdom. An internal assessment (a panic discussion within the top Al Saud clan, involving a few top princes around MbS, which spread through palace guards like wildfire) shows that the Al Saudi regime would collapse if this Yemen war continues for another three years. So the clan desperately needs western help in the form of boots on the ground. This had possibly caused the “drone strike” (an inside job) on Saudi oilfields, and attributed falsely to Iran. This has been the prelude for the western forces to be stationed in large numbers on Saudi soil to protect the Al Saudi family. All the latest Saudi moves to liberalize the strict Islamic rules (especially for women) is to sweeten this deal to invite the western forces on its soil, as well as making its own citizens to be more receptive to the western military personnel, women included, to move freely within the Kingdom.

But the moot point is that the Kingdom’s days are numbered by this Yemeni war – thanks to its medieval air force which has been killing Yemeni women and children systematically, because it can’t locate the Houti fighters (in spite of intels being provided by the undercover western military personnel on the ground).

Related: How Saudi elite became five-star prisoners at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton

How could Saudi Arabia, a country with the world’s third-largest military budget and six battalions of U.S.-built Patriot missile-defense systems, fail to defend the beating heart of the oil industry on which the kingdom depends?

That question lies at the heart of responses to Saturday’s attack on Abqaiq, which cut Saudi oil production by half, and is critical to any assessment of whether investors will have to permanently factor higher political risk assumptions into the price of oil.

For years, Saudi Arabia has been a major buyer of U.S.-made weapons. That relationship intensified after President Trump took office, with the American leader pushing oil-rich Riyadh to buy more weapons and Saudi Arabia pledging a purchase of $110 billion in U.S. arms just months after his inauguration.

After this weekend, when a devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities blindsided the kingdom, some observers were left wondering what protection Riyadh’s outreach to the United States has bought it.

The operation appeared to circumvent the defenses of Saudi Arabia’s military, including the six battalions of Patriot missile defense systems produced by U.S. defense contractor Raytheon — each of which can cost in the region of $1 billion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to Saturday’s attack with mockery. At an event Monday in Turkey, Putin suggested that Saudi Arabia buy the Russian-made S-300 or S-400 missile defense system, as Iran and Turkey had done. “They will reliably protect all infrastructure objects of Saudi Arabia,” Putin said.

Until U.S.-Iran tensions subside, the risk of further attacks is likely to remain. In recent months, the U.S. has accused Iran of sabotaging tankers carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi-claimed drones attacked pumping stations for Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline in May, and the Shaybah oil field in August. A Saudi military official said Monday that Iranian weapons were used in the latest attacks.

The success of a drone strike against arguably the most important single piece of infrastructure in the global oil industry could also prove an embarrassment for Raytheon Co.’s high-cost Patriots.

“What amazes me is, what happened to the American anti-missile systems?” said Fawaz A. Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics. “This reflects terribly on the U.S. and its defense systems. The Iranians know this now and the lessons learned here will be applied in Syria, Lebanon and others areas in the future.”

Depending on their size, drones could even be driven into the kingdom and launched at short range.

Related: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Human Trafficking & Modern-day Slavery

Newt Gingrich on Meet the Press this Sunday said we were already in World War III and that the US needed to take direct action against North Korea and Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has warned of astronomical oil prices in the event that tensions escalate in the Persian Gulf, two weeks after his country was hit by a drone and cruise missile attack that Riyadh and Washington have blamed on Iran.

The oil market is on edge after Saudi Arabia issued a combative statement that some are interpreting as a veiled threat to wield crude as a weapon.

“If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests,” the crown prince said in an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” over the weekend.

“Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes.”

The predawn attack on Sept. 14 hit two of state oil giant Saudi Aramco’s largest facilities, forcing the country to temporarily shut down roughly 50% of its output, or more than 5% of the world’s daily crude production. The following Monday, international benchmark Brent crude rose as much as 19.5% to $71.95 per barrel at the open ⁠— the biggest jump on record ⁠— before paring gains.

Related: Two oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman

Washington and Riyadh also blame Iran for a series of mysterious sabotage attacks on several foreign oil tankers in the Gulf near the vital Strait of Hormuz, the narrow conduit through which 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Iran denies those allegations as well.

Incredible success after incredible success against overwhelming odds and technology. BEHOLD! It is the Houthis, the Army of God! Touched by the Divine because of their honor in attacking only military targets and seeking justice where there is none. The Houthis are unbeatable and unstoppable.

Militarily they [the Houthis] have close to 100,000 battle hardened soldiers, and they have demonstrated their power elsewhere.

Related: Assassination of Jamal Khashoggi

The Middle East “represents about 30% of the world’s energy supplies, about 20% of global trade passages, about 4% of the world GDP,” the crown prince, who is next in line for the Saudi throne and considered the kingdom’s de facto ruler, told CBS.

“Imagine all of these three things stop. This means a total collapse of the global economy, and not just Saudi Arabia or the Middle East countries.”

Energy industry experts have cited figures between $100 and $150 per barrel for the price of oil if the adversaries — OPEC’s highest and third-highest oil producers, respectively — went to war.

My son also served in Desert Storm, he had contacts with some Saudi forces. He said they were cowardly clowns, these people in Yemen might well be foreign mercenaries, in which case SA just hires some more. If they actually have Saudi officers, then they may well be profitable hostages.

Related: How Saudi Arabia funded the 9/11 hijackers

Security experts and members of the diplomatic community have told CNBC that Saudi Arabia is ill-equipped for a war with Iran, as the latter employs asymmetrical tools like drones, cyberattacks and regional proxies while Saudi defenses are more suited to conventional warfare.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned world leaders on Wednesday at the U.N. General Assembly that “the Gulf region is on the edge of collapse, as a single blunder can fuel a big fire.”

The royal family is teetering on the edge of collapse, with the possibility of internal dissent, whether it comes from within the royal family or the masses who live in poverty and are waiting for their Arab Spring.

US-led Saudi Arabia is the key pillar of the oppressors in the region. With the collapse of the oppressors’ front, everybody will be witnessing the annihilation of the Al Saud dynasty as well. Al Saud rulers are now facing major problems as the Saudi nation has been awakened. Now, the security and raison d’etre of the Al Saud dynasty has been challenged inside Saudi Arabia. If this weren’t the case, Riyadh wouldn’t have given more than half of its forex reserves to Trump. The dynasty is resorting to such moves to delay its annihilation. But the reality is that the Al Saud dynasty is spiraling down the vortex of destruction.

Anyone preparing contingency plans to secure the Saudi oil fields in times of crisis might want to dust off their work.

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